Farmer's Almanac predicts dry winterDate: 9/15/2010 Sept. 15, 2010
By G. Michael Dobbs
Managing Editor
The people for the weather forecasts contained in the annual "The Old Farmer's Almanac" acknowledge climate change, but according to the Almanac's Associate Editor Sarah Perreault, they don't "pay too much attention to global warming."
Speaking to Reminder Publications, Perreault explained the global warming that has been debated by many scientists isn't taken into consideration when the Almanac forecasters start predicting the weather a year in advance.
The reason is the Almanac staff, using the formula first developed in 1792 by founder Robert B. Thomas, see climate change in cycles that are not dramatic as some climatologists, she said.
Much of the Almanac's method of forecasting the weather is based on cycles of solar activity such as sunspots. Perrerault said the extremes in solar activity can run in 20-year cycles can cause the extremes of both heat and cold.
"It's not just getting warmer," she said. "Having 85 degrees in January in New England is not going to happen."
Although this past summer was one of the hottest and driest on record, Perreault said next summer in New England will be a "little cooler than normal" and dry.
When asked if the Almanac predicted this summer's weather, she admitted that while the forecasters thought it would be hot and dry, but "we were not expecting such extremes."
This winter will be cool -- colder across southern New England -- and dry with less than normal snowfalls, according to the Almanac.
Despite missing the mark, Perreault said the Almanac has an 81 percent accuracy rate on its monthly forecasts.
In comparison, according to the Web site, www.forecastadvisor.com, which evaluates major weather forecasting services, the National Weather Service had a 75.02 accuracy rate for last month while Accuweather had a 62.54 percent rate.
When asked why other forecasting organizations don't look at the process used by the Almanac although part of that forecasting formula is secret -- Perreault said the National Weather Service doesn't "pay much attention to us."
"I think they don't want to be wrong. It would look bad," she said.
Despite the technology offered by the Internet with immediate forecasts, the Almanac has nine million readers.
The fact the annual publications offers the same kind of information every year, Perreault said -- from weather predictions to stories on food, gardening and trends -- makes it unique.
" Even though we're brand new, we're still the same," she said.
And yes, it still has the hole that allow reasders to use a string to hang the book in their barn, garage or kitchen.
The Almanac supplements its printed edition with more material on its Web site www.almamac.com.
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