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WNE poll: 37 percent of voters undecided in Senate race

Date: 10/15/2012

By G. Michael Dobbs

news@thereminder.com

SPRINGFIELD —In politics, it all comes down to the numbers.

The debate between Sen. Scott Brown and Elizabeth Warren on Oct. 10 at Symphony Hall was framed by two polls that had been released shortly before the event.

According to the survey by the Western New England University (WNE) Polling Institute, "61 percent [of those polled] have seen or heard at least one of the two debates that have been broadcast on television and radio so far in the campaign.

"Among those who have seen or heard at least one debate, 31 percent said the most recent debate they saw or heard made them more likely to vote for Brown, while 30 percent said Warren, and 37 percent said the debate made no difference," the poll reported.

"Voters are hearing the candidates' messages, either through debates, ads, or statements on the stump," Tim Vercellotti, director of the Polling Institute and a professor of political science at WNE, said. "The debates seem to be helping both candidates, while the ads seem to be helping Warren a bit more than Brown. For voters who perceive a negative tone in the race, Brown is more likely to be viewed as responsible for that tone than Warren."

A poll conduced by the University of Massachusetts Amherst (UMass) found that Warren was ahead by a slender 48 to 46 percent lead over Brown among likely voters and a 49 to 43 percent advantage over Brown among registered voters.

UMass Political Science Professor Tatishe Nteta, who was part of the team conducting the poll, said, "In the wake of two debates and a barrage of negative political advertisements, Warren has maintained a narrow lead over Brown among likely voters. These results do not bode well for the incumbent Brown whose support among registered voters is well below 50 percent with less than four weeks until Election Day. Given the small percentage of 'undecideds' in the contest Brown faces a difficult, but not insurmountable, path to re-election."

A standing-room-only crowd filled Symphony Hall to hear the third debate between Brown and Warren and the audience was treated to a discussion that focused on issues rather than controversies.

At the center of the debate were the problems faced by the middle class and how best to improve its lot. Brown advocated his approach of being bipartisan and willing to go against his party line and evaluating legislation on its merits, while Warren said she would fight for education and infrastructure improvements, which would help the employment and growth of the middle class.

The debate lacked the drama that characterized the other meetings, although both candidates did jab at each other trying to draw blood. For instance, Brown pointed out, in an effort to undermine Warren's affiliation with the middle class, that she makes $350,000 a year at Harvard Law School and teaches only one class. Warren chose not to respond.

Warren hammered at Brown's insistence at refusing to raise taxes on the rich and allowing a tax increase on the middle class. He refused to budge on the issue.

The bedrock sticking point between the two candidates was their opinion on taxes and the economy. Warren said that Brown voted against three jobs bills and that the long-term approach was to invest in projects such as Springfield's Union Station and in education with the area's "Education Corridor" cited.

Brown quickly responded that the legislation he didn't support were not good bills and would have taken $450 billion in taxes out of private sector and given that money to the Washington D.C. establishment.

Pulling in a local reference, the first of several throughout the hour-long debate from both candidates, Brown noted he had lunched at Milano's in Springfield that day, an Italian specialty food store and deli in the South End, and had been told by the owner that Washington D.C. "needs a reality check."

Later in the debate, Brown characterized the federal government as "pigs at a trough."

He added, to applause, "They just take and take and take."

Throughout the debate, Brown walked a line as a moderate bipartisan Republican and called himself as part of a "vanishing breed." He emphasized he had voted for one of President Barack Obama's job bills and said that he had voted with his party only 54 percent of the time. He told Warren that he had been the deciding vote in the Senate creating the consumer credit watchdog agency she helped found.

Warren mentioned several times that despite his efforts to be bipartisan, Brown had signed the pledge by Republican activist Grover Norquist never to raise taxes. Warren believes the Bush Administration tax cuts should be extended to the middle class but ended for the higher economic groups to boost federal revenues to help close the deficit. Warren also supports cuts in spending for that deficit reducing effort.

Brown said he was protecting "job creators" and added he didn't support raising taxes on any groups.

When asked about the possible changes to Westover Air Reserve Base and Barnes Air National Guard Base through budget cuts to the Pentagon, Brown, who is still in the Army National Guard and a veteran of service on Afghanistan, said he understands the process as he was a state senator when Massachusetts military bases faced closings before.

Warren said she would make it a priority to protect Westover's current mission as the home of C-5A transport planes. She said she would support evaluating the military after the withdrawal from Afghanistan and examine if the standing army need to be the size it is presently.

Brown called her approach "a great sound bite," but refuted her stance.

"We can't cut military funding and protect the C-5s," he said.

The two candidates did seem to find some common ground in the need to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon and removing the current government of Syria.