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Date: 8/24/2021
WESTERN MASS. – Area legislators say the information provided by the 2020 Census largely met expectations.
While initially delayed, the U.S. Census Bureau released population data that will be vital to redistricting that could take place for local as well as Congressional districts.
In Massachusetts, growth was the trend and Hampshire County was no different, standing in contrast to some neighboring Western Massachusetts communities. Overall during the past 10 years, Massachusetts experienced a 482,288-person increase in population, representing 7.4 percent jump to just over 7 million residents.
The numbers
Northampton saw a 3.6 percent bump in population, marking the first time in decades the city experienced an increase. From 2010 to 2020, the population grew by more than 1,000 residents from 28,549 to 29,571. That figure represents Northampton’s largest population in since 1970, when it was reported at 29,664.
Amherst experienced continued growth as well with a 3.8 percent increase in population to 39,263.
The Census also illustrated that while the population continued to increase, Hadley’s rapid growth experienced in the 1990s and early 2000s has slowed. Hadley reported 5,325 people in 2020, marking a 1.4 percent hike. This paled in comparison to the 2000 and 2010 Census numbers that reflected 13.3 and 9.5 percent increases, respectively.
Easthampton and Westhampton experienced modest growth. Easthampton added just over 150 residents in the last 10-year period to rest at 16,211 in 2020.
Southampton, meanwhile, saw a substantial jump once again with the population increasing from 5,792 people to 6,224. It marked the second-straight 10-year period in which the town had a 7.5 percent jump in population. Since the 1980 Census, Southampton’s population has ballooned from 4,137 to 6,224.
Williamsburg experienced modest growth at 0.9 percent while Hatfield’s population saw a 2.2 percent increase during the past decade. While Worthington had growth at a rate of 3.2 percent, Chesterfield, Cummington and Goshen all experienced losses of 2.9, 4.9 and 8.9 percent, respectively.
Pelham lost 41 residents, representing a 3.1 percent decrease. Whately’s population jumped 7.4 percent after experiencing a significant decline from 2000 to 2010. Leverett had modest growth with 14 additional residents, or 0.8 percent. Sunderland’s population was reduced by a meader 0.6 percent while Shutesbury reflected a decline for the second straight census with a 3 percent reduction.
Throughout the county, minority populations increased, though overall, the population remained predominantly white.
Amherst's white population percentage fell from 73.3 percent in 2010 to 61.5 percent in 2020. Asian residents made up 17.8 percent of the population, an increase of nearly 7 percent from the last census. Hispanic or Latino residents were 9.7 percent of the 2020 population, representing a 2.4 percent increase, while the number of residents of two or more races rose to 4.7 percent, a 1.4 percent bump.
Hadley also saw a decline in the percentage of the population identifying as white to 81.6 percent, compared to 89.4 percent in 2010. The Asian population makes up 6.6 percent of the total, up from 4 percent, and Hispanic or Latino residents represent an additional 6 percent, an increase from 3.1. Those identifying with two or more races increased from 1.4 to 4.1 percent.
White residents made up 78 percent of the Northampton population, a decrease of 6.2 percent. Meanwhile, the number of Hispanic or Latino people in the city rose from 6.8 percent in 2010 to 9.1 percent in 2020. The number of those identifying with two or more races also jumped from 2.1 to 5 percent.
While those identifying as white still made up 85.1 percent of Easthampton’s total population, that number was down from 91.4 percent in 2010. The city saw notable increases in its Hispanic population – 6.8 percent in 2020 compared to 3.7 percent in 2010 – and those identifying with two or more races – 3.8 in 2020 versus 1.3 in 2010.
Other communities did not see as dramatic a change in the racial makeup of their communities, but change did occur.
Ninety three percent of Westhampton residents, for instance, identified as white in 2020 compared to 97 percent in 2010. Those identifying with multiple races grew from 0.4 percent to 3.5 percent over the past 10 years. The town also saw a modest increase in Hispanic residents at 2.8 percent.
Southampton’s population of those identifying as white dropped from 96.6 percent to 91.7 percent while the Hispanic population rose from 1.5 percent to 3.3 percent and the number of people identifying with two or more races grew from 0.9 percent to 3.5 percent.
Hatfield's white population sits at 92.3 percent, a 4.3 percent drop with those of two or more races marking the largest increase for 0.6 to 3 percent. Williamsburg's population is 91.1 percent white, down from 95.4 percent a decade ago. The percentage of those identifying with two or more races grew from 1.1 percent in 2010 to 3.7 percent in 2020.
Legislator reaction
Congressman Richard Neal
First Congressional District
Congressman Richard Neal told Reminder Publishing that there was not too much of a surprise when it came to the population numbers within his district.
“I think that many of the trends were fairly consistent,” said Neal, regarding population growth.
Springfield, which saw a 3.1 percent decrease in population during the 2000 census, as well as a 0.6 percent increase in the 2010 census, experienced a 1.9 percent increase in population over the past 10 years. Neal found this growth to be encouraging.
“I do think in the aftermath of the pandemic, there was evidence that urban areas began to grow,” said Neal. “I think encouraging people to live in old New England cities is a good idea if you want a healthy mixture of people.”
A few notable cities in Neal’s district featured a vacancy rate above 5 percent, including Holyoke, Springfield and Pittsfield. When asked about this, Neal described urban housing as being a complicated matter.
“I think it’s best described as income-elastic,” said Neal, regarding housing in these areas. “It is also linked to other amenities that attract people to live in urban areas.”
Neal added that the convenience of the highway service oftentimes allows people to live outside of the city while still benefitting from the core services that the cities can provide. “I think in terms of housing, the best way to look at that should be musical chairs, but everybody gets a chair,” the Congressman added.
As far as redistricting goes, Neal said that he knew from day one that he would have to pick up parts of a constituency. He said that the decreasing population trends in Berkshire and Franklin Counties have been consistent for three decades. The vacancy rate numbers in some Berkshire and Franklin towns reflect this decline. For example, places like Monterey and Sandisfield are seeing vacancy rates reach over 40 percent, while a town like Otis has reached a vacancy rate of 52 percent, according to the data.
“I think for me, having to head east was a foregone conclusion,” said Neal. “It’s important to upgrade some of our zoning procedures…in a lot of ways, land-use patterns have been emphasized in terms of resistance to any new growth when it comes to housing. I think you’re seeing that in the Boston suburbs, but also in the greater Springfield suburbs.”
Lindsay Sabadosa
First Hampshire District
For Lindsay Sabadosa, First Hampshire District state representative, every community in her district – with the exception of the small Hampden County town of Montgomery – experienced some kind of population increase.
“I think we spent a lot of time leading up to the census working really hard to try to make sure we got a complete count,” said Sabadosa. “I think we had a picture of what it looked like, and we were just hoping that the count would reflect that.”
In the end, Sabadosa believes that the district did a better job counting the data than anticipated.
“We had anticipated, just looking at housing and registration, that our numbers would increase for most of the district,” said Sabadosa. “I’m glad that we got a count that was reflecting growth…I think Hampshire County is going to continue to grow.”
Westhampton, she noted, also had the highest vacancy rate in the district at 11.4 percent. Compared to some other smaller towns who have vacancy rates in the 30 to 40 percent range, Sabadosa does not believe this is a huge deal for Westhampton.
“I think it’s really hard for smaller communities because these rates come through, and they seem very high, but they actually reflect a really small number,” said Sabadosa. “I don’t think that it is a particularly large vacancy rate.”
While there was a slight increase in diversity regarding ethnicity and race in the district due to the presence of colleges and universities, Sabadosa said that the district has a lot more work to do to make the communities truly welcoming in the next 10 years.
“We’re still a predominantly white district, and I think we need to do a little bit better on that front,” said Sabadosa.
With this data in mind, Sabadosa said that she could end up losing a community or gaining a community during redistricting depending on Franklin and Berkshire County representatives. According to Sabadosa, those two counties in the state lost population. She said that it is hard to know the exact impacts these numbers will have on the future at this time.
State Rep. Dan Carey
Second Hampshire District
According to state Rep. Dan Carey, the recent 2020 census numbers are mainly in line with what he expected when his district began collecting data for Easthampton, Granby, Hadley and South Hadley.
“The numbers were right about where the estimates were,” said Carey. “We worked with town officials and clerks throughout the district…we wanted people to know how important it is to respond. Everyone on the local level did an excellent job.”
Carey said that the general population increase in his district was mainly due to more people moving into those areas. As these places are becoming more desirable, home prices are going up. With that in mind, Carey said that a focus over the next few years will be a greater emphasis on affordable housing.
“That’s always going to be a need, especially with these new numbers,” said Carey. “It’s something that we continue to work on.”
Additionally, Carey said that the population numbers now will not have a huge impact on redistricting, especially since the numbers stayed steady throughout the past 10 years. Since the entire state saw an increase in population though, Carey said that everyone’s districts will increase. Berkshire and Franklin Counties were the only ones that saw a population decrease, which means their land size must increase even more.
“Even though my district currently is right about where it needs to be, there could be shifts in other districts that affect this area,” said Carey. “That’s something the Legislature is working on now and is going to continue to work on in the coming months.”
State Rep. Mindy Domb
Third Hampshire District
Third Hampshire District state Rep. Mindy Domb did not respond to a request for comment, however, she noted in her newsletter to constituents that while Western Massachusetts showed areas of decline, her district did not experience a decrease in population, powered by Amherst’s increase.
“This is in no small part due to the dedication and commitment of town officials, engaged residents, community organizations and the institutions of higher education who made sure that everyone in our community was counted, because everyone counts,” she wrote. “These numbers will be used to draw new election districts (for U.S. Congress, state representatives and state senators) and the local level. In addition, these numbers will be used in decision-making and eligibility for resource allocation for the next 10 years.”
State Rep. Natalie Blais
First Franklin District
First Franklin District State Rep. Natalie Blais said that before the census data was released, she was expecting a population decline in her district.
“I do not think there were any big surprises when it comes to the First Franklin District; we did expect to see some population decline although a couple of communities did pop out with larger population declines than we expected,” she said.
Blais said four of the nine communities in Massachusetts with the biggest decrease in population are in the 1st Franklin District, including Middlefield which saw the biggest population percentage decrease of any city or town in the state.
“If you look at the top nine, the number one community with the biggest population decline is Middlefield, which was a 26.1 percent decline. The third is Goshen, that is an 8.9 percent decline, the fourth is Chester, which is an 8.2 percent decline and the ninth is Conway with a 7.2 percent decline,” she said.
Blais added the declines in each community are concerning for her. With the declines in different communities, Blais said there will be some redistricting done to address those numbers.
“The Redistricting Committee just received these numbers and is taking a look at them to determine what makes sense in terms of redistricting going forward. There will have to be some shifts based on some of these numbers,” she said.
With population projections showing people leaving Western Massachusetts to head out east, Blais said a decision needs to be made to prevent population decline in the western part of the state.
“We have seen the population projections for the commonwealth going forward that Western Massachusetts is going to lose population and inside the 495 corridor is projected to gain population. As a commonwealth, we need to decide if we are going to let those population trends happen or if we are going to introduce policies and programs that will shift those trends to benefit the entire commonwealth,” she said.
State Sen. John Velis
Second Hampden and Hampshire District
State Sen. John Velis of Second Hampden and Hampshire District noted, “While there were some changes in population numbers, most municipalities didn’t see too drastic of a shift.”
He added, “A number of people in Eastern Massachusetts have predicted that the census would show a large exodus of population from Western Massachusetts. While there was some decrease in population, it was not as high as some projected. I think that shows the love that people have for their communities out here as well as the accessible work opportunities available to them.”
Looking forward, Velis shared his thoughts on the data as a whole, and how it may impact his district. “Every state Senate District in Western Massachusetts is going to have to change in some way, mine included. In order for the proportions to work out, my district will undoubtedly add other towns and cities.”
He concluded, “At the end of the day, the goal is to ensure that every municipality, and every resident, is appropriately represented.”
State Sen. Adam Hinds
Berkshire, Hampshire, Franklin and Hampden District
While some of his Hampshire County towns experienced losses, Berkshire, Hampshire, Franklin and Hampden state Sen. Adam Hinds said the numbers for his district overall were slightly better in terms of population decline than what he was expecting.
“By and large it was close to what we were expecting, we were starting to make assessments based on the 2019 estimated population. We were expecting to make up for a 14 percent loss to get to the plus or minus 5,000 range per seat. The actual number was closer to 13 percent,” he said.
One thing Hinds said the census data does not fully account for is for people that moved out into Berkshire County during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“The population loss we expected in Berkshire [and] Franklin counties was not as severe and it does not capture the number of people who moved to the region during COVID, so in reality we may have even more people than that,” he said.
One positive Hinds said he found from the data is diversifying communities, particular in Berkshire County.
“The communities that are growing are communities of color and immigrant communities, which honestly is a reason why the population was not larger. It is a positive development that we are diversifying and seeing growth in our immigrant community especially,” he said.
With a shift east for representative seats in his district likely on the way, Hinds said he wants to keep the changes as minor as possible.
“For me it is important that we keep the same number of seats we have and make sure that any adjustments are minor in nature. Because my district borders Vermont, New York and Connecticut there is nowhere else to go but east. That is a reality, and the question becomes how many municipalities,” he said.
With any changes to the districts, Hinds said he wants to make sure the people have a relationship with their elected representatives.
“I think ensuring Western Mass. keeps the same number of seats representing the region in the Senate is a key factor. We are really focused on trying to make sure the changes are minimal, and that people have a relationship with their representatives and their representatives understand the region and the towns,” he said.
Hampshire, Franklin and Worcester state Sen. Jo Comerford acknowledged a request for comment but was not available as of press time. Congressman Jim McGovern did not respond to a request for comment.