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Date: 5/24/2022
NORTHAMPTON – A new wave of infections, primarily from the BA.2.12.1 variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, is driving a surge in COVID-19 illness. Every county in the commonwealth, according to state health data, shows a higher rate of infections.
Fear of COVID-19 will not stop Dr. Eric Granowitz, staff physician at Cooley Dickinson Hospital, from partying with his grandfather on Father’s Day. A neighbor also invited Granowitz to a get-together, but he probably won’t go to that one.
“My father, he’s important to me,” Granowitz said, “That’s an area where I’ll take more risk. I probably wouldn’t go to my next door neighbor’s … because they don’t mean as much to me as my dad. Everybody is making those decisions. There are some things that are black and white … but many of these decisions are not.”
Granowitz recommends people stay safe by managing risk. Vaccines, distancing, air flow improvements, masks and testing are all measures for risk mitigation. He also recommends choosing your friends wisely.
“If your friends are being careful, in terms of mitigating their risks, then you’re gonna be safer too,” Granowitz said. “Physical distancing is effective. Three feet for sure … If you’re in a room with a lot of air exchanges, because of the HVAC system or because the windows are wide open, that’s protective.”
The risks of being indoors with an infected person increase over time. Granowitz, a big fan of masking, also noted the federal government will supply eight free tests for COVID-19 through the mail to those who request them. He also recommends vaccination, though he acknowledged people have concerns about them.
“The best way to be protected, practically, is to get vaccinated,” Granowitz said. “I highly recommend it. There are obviously some concerns about the vaccines, but that is number one on the list.”
The concerns with the shots, and the risks, are well documented. According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 27,968 deaths of Americans have been attributed to the mRNA shots. Over 155,000 people have been hospitalized after a shot, with the adverse events in the database exceeding 1.26 million injuries. Safety testing by Pfizer, prior to the release of its vaccine through an Emergency Use Authorization, also included nine pages listing adverse events, a total of about 158,000 different impacts on human health.
Injuries from illness or the vaccines are not the only risks to avoid. Granowitz acknowledged the coronavirus pandemic is incredibly difficult for a family with young children in school or day care. The risk is that normal growth in a child is being lost, which may have lifelong consequences.
“Their social and emotional growth is being stunted too. That’s a very difficult balance,” Granowitz said. “The risk to the children is very small, but they can spread it to grandma and grandpa.”
The BA.2.12.1 variant is spreading quickly. Information from the state COVID-19 Interactive Data Dashboard shows 4,965 children 9 years of age and younger were infected in the last two weeks, across the commonwealth. People in their 20s accounted for the most new infections, with 9,848 new cases, while people 60 years and older endured almost the same counts with 9,475 cases.
Hampden County on May 18 showed 314 new cases. Hampshire County had 154 new cases for the day, while Franklin County reported 36. The higher numbers reflect the higher infection rate in younger people from the omicron variants. The earlier waves of the pandemic, driven by the alpha and delta variants, saw very few infections in the young. The risk of death and serious illness still affects the aging and elderly.
“Young people are getting more infections than older people right now, a lot more. But the chances of them ending up in the hospital and dying,” Granowitz said, “is much much less. So if you had to say who’s at risk in a general sense, I think it still is the elderly.”
New research suggests that once infected, however, people have a substantial window of strong natural immunity. A recent study led by Dr. Jessica Ridgway, “Rates of COVID-19 Among Unvaccinated Adults With Prior COVID-19” discovered that unvaccinated adults who have had a symptomatic case of COVID-19 carry strong immunity from reinfection for up to eight months. Ridgway examined the data of 100,000 people treated at 1,300 treatment sites in the western states.
The CDC arrived at a similar conclusion earlier this year. In its Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report for Jan. 28, CDC researchers concluded, “Case rates were initially lowest among vaccinated persons without a previous COVID-19 diagnosis; however … over the course of time, incidence increased sharply in this group, but only slightly among both vaccinated and unvaccinated persons with previously diagnosed COVID-19.”
Granowitz downplayed the role of natural immunity by pointing to the risk of long lasting symptoms. Short and long-term health impacts from an infection cannot be predicted and may be devastating.
“The other thing we can’t forget about is long COVID[-19],” Granowitz said. “Recently, it has gotten somewhat divorced from the percentage of people getting infected, and I think it’s critically important.”
Granowitz would not venture a prediction for the future, but sees the viral threat changing. The pandemic may or may not be over, but the virus is here to stay.
“The virus is transitioning,” Granowitz said. “We’ve really gone to a situation where the virus is moving [away] from an epidemic/pandemic. It means we’re kind of living with it. It’s not gonna go away [and] people are gonna get it.”