Use this search box to find articles that have run in our newspapers over the last several years.
Date: 12/27/2022
SPRINGFIELD – Many polls during the recent midterm elections predicted a “red wave” of triumphant Republican candidates in many races across the country. That “wave” didn’t happen as thought, and many political observers question the future of polling.
Political consultant Anthony Cignoli and Tim Vercelotti, the director of the Western New England University Polling Institute, recently spoke about the challenges facing pollsters in the 21st century on an edition of “Government Matters” on Focus Springfield.
Vercelotti said the challenge is indeed real. “This is a huge issue in the polling industry. We’re all looking for new ways to reliably scientifically measure opinion because fewer and fewer people are picking up their phones and each election cycle is a new test for us in terms of whether or not the techniques we are using are generating valid, reliable representative data.”
Cignoli has seen a major shift from the era of everyone using a landline with no calling identification to now cell phones that tell people who is calling.
“Folks are dearth to pick up a phone and talk to a pollster and complete an entire poll,” he said. Cignoli noted he wants to use surveys that are beyond just five or six questions, but ones that go deeper into the opinions and motivations of the voter.
“Our polling tends to be a little lengthy. That makes it harder for us,” he added.
Vercelotti explained the number of people he reaches in order to compile what he believes to be an accurate poll. His polls have had a goal of 400 to 500 respondents, but in polls taken this year about 860 respondents were reached to be sure the margin of error was addressed.
This year Vercelotti tried a new technique by texting a message to cell phone numbers asking people to follow a link to a website with a survey. Those numbers were then eliminated from the list and calls were made to the remaining numbers.
“We got about a third of our completes by doing text-to-web,” he said. Pollsters, he added, are constantly looking for ways to get the information they need in ways that matches people’s lifestyles.
For instance, Vercelotti said his students at the university never answer their cell phones and don’t check their voice mail. They will look at texts, though, he added.
He explained the institute starting dialing cell phones in 2010 and people were offended they were getting a call on essentially a private number.
“We’re not meeting that reaction these days, because they provide their cell phones when they buy something on Amazon and they want to track their purchases,” he explained. Cell phone numbers are much more accessible, he added.
Cignoli said all candidates want the information provided by a poll.
His firm explains to candidates about depth and frequency of polling, as well as the cost. He added an initial poll in the first days of a campaign is essential, something even before opponents announce. What Cignoli wants to know is what the electorate wants and needs and what are their beliefs, as well as how they are being influenced. The information the polls uncover may have nothing to do with a particular candidate, but rather the personal issues people are facing, which can be very valuable to know during the course of a campaign.
“We like to poll several times: early, in the middle and towards the end,” he said.
The most recent election results, as opposed to the polling information from the last election, for instance, are examined by pollsters, Vercelotti said.
How the data was gathered, how likely voters were identified, who actually turned up at the polls are all factors, he noted.
In the last election there were polling organizations, some new, which provided information that affected the models, Vercelotti explained. He said the models predicting the races for Senate were “actually pretty good.” The prediction was a “knife’s edge majority give or take a seat.” The prediction that Republicans would take over the House with a large majority was “overstated” and he noted there was a dearth of polling at the level of the House races.
“So, there was a lot of guess work about how those House races were going to go,” he said.
Although one might assume polling organizations are neutral, Vercelotti said there are firms that cater to one party.
Organizations that deal with the candidates of one party might put out optimistic results that favor their candidates. “This happens across both parties,” he said.
“There’s no profit, no advantage to siding with one party or another. You just want to get it right,” he said.
Cignoli said that in his case, he just doesn’t want the polls issued by a state political party. “We want our own. We want our own micro right down to the ground polling that’s telling us exactly what’s happening that can make a difference to us.”
Although political parties do their own polling, Cignoli does not rely on it and wants results from their own polls.
He also noted that the release of polling information to the press is another political tactic that has become more prominent since the 1980s. The challenge is for journalists to question a poll, its methodology and intent in an era in which deadlines have been accelerated.
Noting the recent election with inaccurate polling, Vercelotti said, “The polling industry has to do a much better job at education for the public, the consumers of surveys but also journalists as well.” Too often the nuances of polling results are lost in the race for a lede paragraph, he explained.