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Managing Editor There's good news and bad news depending upon your viewpoint for this winter, according to the weather forecasters at the "Old Farmer's Almanac." The good news is winter in this part of New England is expected to be milder than normal, but the precipitation is expected to be a bit more. Published since 1792, the "Almanac" for 2008 was recently released by Yankee Publishing of Dublin, NH. Heidi Stonehill, a senior associate editor for the "Almanac" told Reminder Publications the annual magazine is the source for one of the nation's longest-range weather forecasts. According to www.forecastadvisor.com, a Web site devoted to comparing the accuracy of weather forecasting, of the six services it monitors (including the National Weather Service) the accuracy rates range from 77.03 percent to 73.78 percent for the three-to five day forecast. Stonehill said last year's "Almanac's" predictions were off. Those long-range forecasts are also in the same range as the three to five day predictions, but instead the "Almanac" scored only 61 percent. Stonehill said the forecasts predicted the trend of last winter's weather, but was about one month off. "If the events had happened a month earlier, there would have been a 75 percent accuracy rating," she said. The "Almanac" makes its predictions through a combination of meteorology, climatology and the study of sunspot activities and its effects on our weather. Stonehill said the predictions for the 2008 edition were finalized in April. She said the "Almanac's" forecasting staff has said that one cycle of solar activity is ending and another is beginning. The interpretation of this change is that our weather might be cooler. She cautioned, however, this solar cycle change may not affect global warming. There might be a balance between the two, she said. "Global warming is certainly part of the mix," she said. "It's not the only thing." She said the four different ocean oscillations could affect the forecast. The movement of hot and cold ocean water in both the Pacific and the Atlantic has a direct impact on the weather in North America. This year's "Almanac" also has an interesting story in which a series of extreme weather events from 1748 to 1998 were detailed. The article posed the question whether or not 2008 will see such snowstorms, hail, hurricanes and floods. Although the "Almanac" has stories on trends it predicts that home elevators will be seen as status symbols as well as articles on gardening; how to sell your produce at a farmers market; and other topics, the heart of the publication remains the weather forecasts and the daily almanac listings. This daily information includes when the sun and the moon would rise and fall, times for high tides and astrological information. There is also a daily calendar which lists each day and pertinent information, holiday, historical and much more. Stonehill is in charge of that information. She said it takes her three months to compile the facts and trivia and then several months are spent on proofing. All of the facts are placed in a database so they will not be repeated for five years. Stonehill said that freelance writer Castle Freeman writes the short essays that accompany each month's notations. Freeman quotes another almanac publisher, Benjamin Franklin about weather predictions. Writing in 1737 in his "Poor Richard's Alamanck" Franklin gave a defense of his forecasts: the promised weather could come, it was only a question of when. "We modestly desire only the favorable allowance of a day or two before and a day or two after the precise day," Franklin wrote, "If it does not comes to pass accordingly, let the fault be laid upon the printer." | ||||||
