Baker overhauls COVID risk metrics, DESE pushes in-person learning

Date: 11/16/2020

WESTERN MASS – On Nov. 6, Gov. Charlie Baker announced changes to the “stoplight” COVID-19 metrics that categorize the risk of coronavirus transmission into red, yellow, green or gray communities.

After reporting the current COVID-19 statistics of 86,000 new tests, with 1,700 new cases and an infection rate of 1.9 percent, Baker reviewed the new regulations that he put in place on Nov. 2. The regulations mandated public mask-wearing, with a $500 penalty. It also established an advisory curfew between the hours of 10 p.m. and 5 a.m. and lowered the number of people allowed at gatherings.

“We know we’re asking a lot here,” Baker said of the new regulations, but he said the rising trend of cases needs to be reversed for schools to remain open.

Baker talked at length about evidence that schools are not transmission hotspots, citing new data from Brown University. He said that despite more than 450,000 students attending school in-person at least part of the time, only 252 positive cases have been identified among students and staff in schools.

The state adopted color-coded thresholds in August that established active caseloads of less than five total as very low risk “gray,” less than four per 100,000 residents as low-risk “green,” between four and eight cases as moderate-risk “yellow” and more than eight as high-risk “red.” Secretary of Health and Human Services Marylou Sudders explained that the thresholds needed to be refined.

Sudders and Baker argued that using the cases-per-100,000 metric over-represents smaller towns because a single infected family can move a town into the “yellow,” moderate risk category. Sudders explained that the changes to the state’s daily dashboard, available for view at www.mass.gov/info-details/covid-19-response-reporting#covid-19-daily-dashboard, would include the positive test rate as a function of the number of tests to provide a more nuanced look at how each municipality was doing. Also, the “stoplight”-style COVID-19 risk levels will now take into account the size of each community. Communities with fewer than 10,000 residents will be considered very low risk when there are 10 or fewer cases in total. They will change to a low-risk green if there are 15 cases or fewer, yellow at 25 cases or fewer and red when there are more than 25 cases.

While communities up to 50,000 residents begin at the same 10 or fewer level, the escalation criteria are different. Utilizing a two-week average, the green level is hit when there are fewer than 10 cases per 100,000 and more than 10 total cases. Yellow requires 10 or more cases per 100,000 or a positive test rate of 5 percent or higher, whereas red requires both 10 or more cases per 100,000 and the 5 percent or higher positive rate.

There is also a metric for cities with more than 50,000 residents. Those fall into the gray category at 15 or fewer total cases, green at fewer than 10 cases per 100,000 and more than 15 total cases, yellow when at least 10 cases per 100,000 or a 4 percent or higher positive test rate and red when there are both 10 or more cases per 100,000 and a positive test rate of 4 percent or more.

Using the new metrics, Sudders said 16 communities were in the red, 91 in the yellow, 79 in the green and 165 in the gray category.  Baker defended the new metrics as “more nuanced” and “more accurate.”

After re-evaluation using the new metrics, Department of Elementary and Secondary Education (DESE) Commissioner Jeffrey Riley took to the lectern to announce that school districts in the gray, green and yellow categories should endeavor to send their children back to fully in-person instruction. Those communities in the red should use a hybrid model, he said. Riley said most families approve of in-person learning and that the precautions being taken in schools are working to limit school-based spread of the virus.

Districts were originally instructed to create a learning plan for each of three models, in-person, remote or hybrid learning. The districts were given the freedom to choose which model best fit their community, but once the stoplight categories were announced, Riley passed down guidance on which models each community should use based on their color-coded designations.

Many districts in Western Massachusetts currently use remote learning or a hybrid model.

When asked if there would be penalties for districts that do not adhere to DESE’s guidance, Baker said that “the state sets the standards,” but the communities determine “what happens on the ground.”

Riley had a different take, however, and said that DESE has a “responsibility” to make sure people are following the guidance and said they will address situations individually when they “feel districts are not following state guidance.”